Early Warning Bulletin: Nationwide Anti-Trump Protests: The Potential for Conflict Escalation and Violence
Early Warning Bulletin: Nationwide Anti-Trump Protests: The Potential for Conflict Escalation and Violence

Since Donald Trump’s return to the political stage, opposition movements have intensified, culminating in the "50501 Movement," a series of nationwide protests organized on February 5, 2025. The demonstrations were motivated by opposition to Trump's policies, legal controversies, and broader concerns over democratic governance (Harvard Kennedy School, 2023). 

This report provides an overview of protest dynamics, law enforcement responses, counter-mobilization by pro-Trump groups, and the role of misinformation in shaping the current political climate. 

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Early WarningTrust Network
Resource Democracy Hub
Resource Democracy Hub

The Democracy Resource Hub offers curated tools and connections for democracy practitioners worldwide. Access resources on civic engagement, nonviolent action, peacebuilding, and strategic planning.  Join a global community fostering democratic innovation and resilience through interdisciplinary collaboration and knowledge sharing.

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Early Warning Bulletin: All Eyes on Pennsylvania: An Analysis of Political Violence Risks in Pennsylvania
Early Warning Bulletin: All Eyes on Pennsylvania: An Analysis of Political Violence Risks in Pennsylvania

A Special Report by the Conflict Early Warning Analytics Program (CEWAP) - Written by Stephanie White and Madhawa Palihapitiya; edited by Karina Zeferino  

Content Warning: This article includes detailed discussions of racially motivated violence and contains an image depicting a bloodied Black man assaulted by armed white supremacists. 

With its 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is one of the most influential states in the U.S. presidential election landscape (Davis, Jr., 2024). Although historically a swing state, Pennsylvania experienced its first Republican presidential victory since the 1980s when Donald Trump won in 2016. Predictions for the current election are highly uncertain (Davis, Jr., 2024).  Several factors in Pennsylvania contribute to a heightened risk of political violence. This report, though not exhaustive, aims to assess current risks and highlights the need for further analysis and targeted risk mitigation. Special focus is placed on armed white supremacist groups, organizations with a history of violent election protest and/or involvement in the January 6 Capitol events, and strategies for risk mitigation. The likelihood of widespread, organized violence in Pennsylvania appears significant at this time. 

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Trust Network
Early Warning Bulletin: Project 2025
Early Warning Bulletin: Project 2025

Project 2025: A Blueprint for Political Violence, Hate, and Unrest 

By Madhawa Palihapitiya 

Edited by Karina Zeferino 

Introduction 

Project 2025, as laid out in the Mandate for Leadership by the Heritage Foundation, introduces a set of policy proposals and ideological stances that could lead to significant social and political instability. While framed as a plan for conservative governance, several components of Project 2025 raise concerns about promoting political violence, hate, and unrest. This TRUST Network bulletin will examine how its proposals—ranging from the militarization of law enforcement to economic policies that exacerbate inequality—could potentially increase targeted violence, foster political polarization, and undermine democratic norms. 

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Early WarningTrust Network
Early Warning Bulletin: May 2024
Early Warning Bulletin: May 2024

Intro 

In recent weeks, campuses across the nation have become focal points for protests and demonstrations surrounding the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. What began as expressions of solidarity and concern have, in some cases, escalated into scenes of unrest, with clashes between protestors, law enforcement, and counter-protestors. Amidst this tumultuous backdrop, issues of antisemitism, Islamophobia, and the rise of hate ideologies have come sharply into focus, as domestic extremists and hate groups seize upon the chaos to further their agendas.

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Early WarningTrust Network